003
WTPZ31 KNHC 050544
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1100 PM MST SAT OCT 04 2025
..PRISCILLA LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.8N 106.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A
SLOW, GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF
AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
PRISCILLA IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM, WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM) FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM PRISCILLA WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MICHOACáN AND FAR WESTERN GUERRERO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES.
ACROSS COLIMA, WESTERN JALISCO, AND THE REST OF GUERRERO ALONG THE
COAST, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING
A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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