262
WTPZ45 KNHC 051439
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2025
OCTAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH
BANDED CONVECTION BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTER. A 05/1008 UTC AMSR2 PASS SHOWED AN EYE ON MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. SOME EARLIER GOES-18 IMAGES FROM AROUND 1100-1200 UTC
SHOWED A POSSIBLE EYE, BUT DEEP, BANDED CONVECTION HAS COVERED IT UP
SINCE THAT TIME. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE
RISEN TO THE 60-75 KT RANGE, WHILE THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE REMAINS
T-4.0/65 KT. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AS
WELL AS THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION AS NOTED ON MICROWAVE
IMAGES, OCTAVE'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT, MAKING IT
THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2025 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.
OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD, OR 045 DEGREES
AT 3 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE IS PUSHED IN THAT DIRECTION BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. BY EARLY TUESDAY, THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING OCTAVE'S TRACK WILL LIKELY BE A LARGE AND
POWERFUL PRISCILLA, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT OCTAVE
SHOULD BE LOCATED SOUTH OF PRISCILLA. ONCE OCTAVE GETS SOUTHEAST OF
PRISCILLA, AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE
NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST TAKES OCTAVE A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE EAST,
BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA)
MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES A BIT SOUTH OF THE LATEST GOOGLE
DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
OCTAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
26 AND 27 DEGREES C, AND IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SIMILAR WATER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFETIME. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR ANOTHER 24-36 H. A DECENT NUMBER
OF TYPICALLY RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAKENING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE 12 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH AS TO WHETHER OCTAVE COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY, OR WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE (MAINLY DUE TO
THE STRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY), AND IS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE
GUIDANCE OVER THE FIRST DAY. BY 36 H, INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR,
PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF THE OUTFLOW FROM PRISCILLA, IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 36 H ONWARD. OCTAVE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA, AND THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 15.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.9N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 16.1N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.9N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 15.3N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 17.6N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page