088
WTPZ31 KNHC 051441
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST SUN OCT 05 2025
...PRISCILLA FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE EARLY
PART OF THIS WEEK...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND PRISCILLA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM PRISCILLA WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MICHOACáN AND FAR WESTERN GUERRERO, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. ACROSS COLIMA, WESTERN JALISCO, AND THE REST OF GUERRERO
ALONG THE COAST,1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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