642
WTPZ45 KNHC 060236
TCDEP5
HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2025
OCTAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE DATA SHOW HINTS OF AN EYE IN THE INFRARED AND LAST-LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGERY. A 2358 UTC GPM MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTED OCTAVE
STILL HAD A SMALL, SLIGHTLY TILTED INNER CORE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 75 KT TO REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO
TURN EASTWARD ON MONDAY. OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE LARGER HURRICANE PRISCILLA, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO BEND
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS CONSIDERED HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
PREDICTION LIES BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS
AIDS, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST OCTAVE MAY HAVE HIT ITS HIGH NOTE. THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM AND
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. AFTER
A COUPLE OF DAYS, THE SHEAR SHOULD DRASTICALLY INCREASE AS OCTAVE
NEARS THE OUTFLOW OF PRISCILLA WHICH WILL ACCELERATE WEAKENING. FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST AND DISSIPATION IS
STILL EXPECTED WITHIN 4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.4N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 16.4N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 16.3N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 16.1N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.7N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 15.7N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 16.1N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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