532
WTPZ41 KNHC 060237
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 PM MST SUN OCT 05 2025
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PRISCILLA HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY, WITH VERY DEEP BUT ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE'S EYEWALL. WHILE THERE HAVE
BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO CONFIRM, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
HURRICANE IS STILL HAVING TROUBLE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT, WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS
OF VARIOUS ESTIMATES.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION, 330/3 KT, WITH PRISCILLA
MOVING SLOWLY DUE TO A DISTANT RIDGE. A TRACK MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW AS
RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER MEXICO. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO
BE ON THE FAR SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND THE
ECMWF ON THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE. THE NEW FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE
NOAA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
GDMI.
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS NEAR PRISCILLA, WHICH IS
PROBABLY CAUSING THE LESS ORGANIZED CURRENT STRUCTURE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THE HURRICANE WILL ADJUST TO
THIS SHEAR GIVEN THE OTHER VERY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS INCLUDING WARM
WATERS AND HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES, CAUSING GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE CHANCES FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE
MONITORED IN CASE PRISCILLA GETS A TIGHTER INNER CORE. THE NEW
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
START IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO THE HURRICANE MOVING ACROSS A SHARP
SST GRADIENT INTO COOL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD ALSO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.3N 107.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.1N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.1N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.0N 111.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 21.0N 112.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 22.1N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 24.3N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 26.3N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER BLAKE
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