782
WTPZ31 KNHC 060841
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM MST MON OCT 06 2025
..PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 107.3W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A BEND TO THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF AND
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR THROUGH THE EARLY-TO-MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE, AND COULD
APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY COMMENCES BY MIDWEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES
(315 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.
RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS FROM PRISCILLA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MICHOACáN AND FAR WESTERN GUERRERO, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. ACROSS COLIMA, WESTERN JALISCO, AND THE REST OF GUERRERO
ALONG THE COAST, 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA HAVE BEGUN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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