663
WTPZ41 KNHC 060842
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM MST MON OCT 06 2025
PRISCILLA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN,
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH CLOUD
TOPS TO -80 DEG C OR COLDER IN THE BAND. CIRRUS CLOUD
MOTIONS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
EXPANDING AT THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT
75 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB, SAB, AND UW-CIMSS.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF NORTH OR 340/5 KT. A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED BY LATER
TODAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER MEXICO.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS, WITH THE GFS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA, NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON
PRISCILLA'S MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABATING SOMEWHAT OVER THE SYSTEM.
PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. AS NOTED EARLIER, IF PRISCILLA DEVELOPS A TIGHTER
INNER CORE, RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
CORRECTED CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE. STEADY WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CROSSING
A SHARP SST GRADIENT AND HEADING OVER COOLER WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. INTERESTS
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD ALSO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE COASTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 17.2N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.9N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.8N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 19.7N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 20.7N 111.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 21.7N 113.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 25.3N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 26.5N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER PASCH
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