642
WTPZ45 KNHC 060843
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OCTAVE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DIMINISHING IN
SIZE AND ITS CLOUD TOPS WARMING. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH A 0602
UTC METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWING PEAK SURFACE WINDS NEAR 50 KT,
SUPPORTS SETTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT, MAKING OCTAVE A
TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS EASTWARD AT AROUND 6 KT, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A
GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST AND A MUCH LARGER HURRICANE
PRISCILLA TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY, OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY PRISCILLA.
THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
AMONG THE GUIDANCE DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, LARGELY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BINARY INTERACTION. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AID.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST OCTAVE HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, WHICH
ALIGNS WITH RECENT TRENDS. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE
CIRCULATION AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER, STRONGER SHEAR COMBINED WITH INTERACTION WITH PRISCILLA
SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH AND BE ABSORBED BY PRISCILLA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 16.3N 122.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.0N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 15.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 15.8N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 16.7N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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