432
WTPZ45 KNHC 061442
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2025
OCTAVE CONTINUES TO LOSE STRENGTH THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SHRINKING, AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS A BIG SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 45 KT TO ABOUT 80 KT.
BASED ON THE DEGRADED STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET
CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE AT 55 KT. A SATELLITE VIEW OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN SHOWS HOW SMALL OCTAVE IS COMPARED TO
PRISCILLA. IN FACT, OCTAVE'S WIND FIELD IS LESS THAN ONE-THIRD OF
THE SIZE OF PRISCILLA.
THE STORM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 6 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. A CONTINUED
EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WHEN OCTAVE
BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW ON PRISCILLA'S SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND THIS
PREDICTION LIES CLOSEST TO THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND SOLUTIONS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS OCTAVE MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
OF INCREASING SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW OCTAVE
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH OR DISSIPATING COMPLETELY IN A FEW DAYS AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LEANS
CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE EXPECTED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 16.3N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.1N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 15.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 16.5N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page