441
WTPZ41 KNHC 061454
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM MST MON OCT 06 2025
PRISCILLA REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH A FAIRLY LARGE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW). THE ASCAT DATA FROM LATE SUNDAY EVENING
SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT LOWER THAN THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH THE CURVED BAND
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES HAS BECOME
A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS STILL NOT VERY STRONG. THE INNER CORE IS
STILL RATHER BROAD, AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE RMW HAS
CONTRACTED YET. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN A
CONSENSUS 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
PRISCILLA IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, OR 340
DEGREES AT 4 KT. A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME ACCELERATION
IS EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED OVER MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED TOO
MUCH THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING MODERATE WIND SHEAR TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 H, THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF SOME OF THE ADVERSE AFFECTS OF THE
SHEAR. PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 H WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO STEADY SINCE PRISCILLA HAS YET TO DEVELOP A
TIGHT INNER CORE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY AS A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 AROUND TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY
TO COMMENCE IN 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHING
SHARPLY COOLER WATERS.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST, WHICH BRINGS THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WIND RADII FAIRLY CLOSE TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN 36-48
H, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
CABO SAN LUCAS TO SANTA FE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY, AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND WILL REACH THE
COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 17.5N 107.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.3N 108.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 20.2N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 21.2N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 22.3N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 23.4N 114.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 27.5N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER HAGEN
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