960
WTPZ45 KNHC 062035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2025
OCTAVE HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WITHERING AWAY, AND ONLY A FEW DISORGANIZED
PATCHES REMAIN. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL QUITE WELL
ORGANIZED, HOWEVER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT, BASED
ON RECENT ASCAT DATA THAT SHOWED PEAK WINDS AROUND 40 KT. A
SATELLITE VIEW OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN SHOWS HOW SMALL OCTAVE
IS COMPARED TO PRISCILLA. IN FACT, OCTAVE'S WIND FIELD IS LESS THAN
ONE-THIRD OF THE SIZE OF PRISCILLA.
THE STORM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 6 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. A CONTINUED
EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WHEN OCTAVE
BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW ON PRISCILLA'S SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GOOGLE DEEP
MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HCCA.
OCTAVE WILL LIKELY LOSE A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN A GENERALLY DRY
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE STORM'S INTENSITY COULD PLATEAU DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
THAT OCTAVE WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE
OUTER CIRCULATION OF PRISCILLA IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AGAIN LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LEANS CLOSER TO
THE LOWER END OF THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 16.1N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.8N 120.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 15.5N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 16.9N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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