529
WTPZ41 KNHC 062041
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST MON OCT 06 2025
PRISCILLA HAS A VERY LARGE AREA OF BANDED CONVECTION THAT SPIRALS
INTO A CENTRAL AREA THAT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SOME CLEARING FROM
TIME-TO-TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS FROM 06/1604 UTC
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
(RMW). THE STRONGEST VECTORS OF 50-55 KT WERE MAINLY LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
COULD BE LOCATED JUST OUTSIDE THE EDGE OF THE SCATTEROMETER PASS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KT, BUT THIS COULD BE A
BIT GENEROUS.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, OR 340
DEGREES AT 6 KT. A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME
SLIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER MEXICO. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AS A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND IS A BIT FASTER AT DAY 4 AND 5. THE NEW NHC
TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
(HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE INNER CORE AND RMW OF PRISCILLA HAS NOT CONTRACTED YET, AND THE
HURRICANE HAS ALSO NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SOME SNEAKY DRY SLOTS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COULD BE PREVENTING PRISCILLA FROM DEVELOPING A
TIGHT INNER CORE. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS ANTICIPATED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO, BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST REACH COLDER
WATERS, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH SHORTLY AFTER THAT TIME. PRISCILLA IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS
DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW JUST BEYOND 96 H. THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION COULD REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA JUST BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. ENHANCED MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH TODAY, AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS. INTERESTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 18.3N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 20.0N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 20.9N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.0N 112.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 23.1N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.3N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 27.0N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 30.0N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER HAGEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page