500
WTPZ45 KNHC 070239
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AFTER BRIEFLY DIMINISHING EARLIER TODAY.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT,
AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 34 TO 45 KT. BASED ON
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, OR 110 DEGREES, AT
AROUND 6 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE STORM MOVES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND
SOUTH OF A MUCH LARGER HURRICANE PRISCILLA TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
WELL TO THE EAST. A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION BY THURSDAY AS OCTAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AND
ULTIMATELY BECOMES ABSORBED BY PRISCILLA. THIS FORECAST TRACK LIES
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
GUIDANCE.
GIVEN OCTAVE’S COMPACT STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SUCCUMBING
TO THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST THEREAFTER,
AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED WITHIN PRISCILLA’S LARGER CIRCULATION. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, THEN TRENDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 15.8N 120.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 15.4N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 15.1N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.1N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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