653
WTPZ31 KNHC 070245
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 PM MST MON OCT 06 2025
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PRISCILLA MOVES NEARBY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 108.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO, AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA, MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO SAN LAZARO,
MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND
PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE
WEAKENING BEGINS BY MIDWEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES (85 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB (28.71 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL: FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WITH LOCAL TOTALS REACHING
UP TO 4 INCHES AS THE OUTER BANDS OF PRISCILLA REACH THE AREA. THIS
RAINFALL COULD BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA COULD BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page