055
WTPZ41 KNHC 070249
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 PM MST MON OCT 06 2025
PRISCILLA REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE THIS EVENING, WITH BROAD CURVED
BANDS DEVELOPING AND ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER ON GOES-18 SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, THERE WAS A 0057 UTC WSF-M
MICROWAVE PASS THAT SHOWED THE INNER-CORE STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP
WITH A NEARLY CLOSED 37-GHZ CYAN RING. THIS MAY FORESHADOW A PERIOD
OF MORE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY AT
T4.5/77-KT AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE
FROM 68-78 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO FINALLY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE
NORTHWEST, WITH THE ESTIMATED MOTION AT 320/8 KT. A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PRISCILLA. AFTER THIS TIME, AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF JUST OFF THE WESTERN U.S. COASTLINE,
ERODING THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. IN RESPONSE, THE MAJORITY
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PRISCILLA TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES IN THE
FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE DIGGING TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE RIGHT THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC TRACK WAS NUDGED
IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER, IT STILL REMAINS SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR
RIGHT AS SOME OF THE HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODELS AND THE ECMWF TRACK
FORECAST, REMAINING CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI).
THE IMPROVING CORE STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
PRISCILLA MIGHT BE FINALLY READY TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IN THE
SHORT TERM. WITH SHEAR REMAINING BETWEEN 15-20 KT, AND SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAINING ABOVE 28 C FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H, THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY DURING
THIS TIME. AFTERWARDS, PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS A SHARP SST
GRADIENT INTO MUCH COOLER WATER, LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING BEYOND
36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR
ADVISORY, ELECTING TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE HCCA INTENSITY AID. SHEAR
ALSO INCREASES RAPIDLY AFTER 72 H, AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
LOSE ITS REMAINING CONVECTION RIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW.
REGARDLESS, ENHANCED MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 19.1N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.7N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 21.6N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 22.8N 113.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 24.0N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 25.2N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.4N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 29.7N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PAPIN
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