607
ABNT20 KNHC 070526
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF AMERICA:
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC (AL95):
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES QUICKLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ITS PROGRESS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
SOUTHWESTERN GULF:
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GUATEMALA, SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY, AND SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, BELIZE, AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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