144
WTPZ45 KNHC 070848
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OCTAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A NEW AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS REDEVELOPING
AND EXPANDING OVER AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 0541 UTC METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWED
THAT THE STORM'S COMPACT STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT, WITH PEAK SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 40 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB REMAIN 3.0/45 KT, AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
26 TO 41 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND CONSISTENT SATELLITE TRENDS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, OR 110 DEGREES, AT
AROUND 6 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE STORM
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND SOUTH OF A
MUCH LARGER HURRICANE PRISCILLA TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WELL TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY
THURSDAY AS OCTAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH, AND POSSIBLY BECOME,
ABSORBED BY PRISCILLA. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS
AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND GUIDANCE.
GIVEN OCTAVE’S COMPACT STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST THEREAFTER, AND OCTAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH PRISCILLA’S
LARGER CIRCULATION. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 15.8N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 15.4N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.1N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.4N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 17.9N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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