545
WTPZ45 KNHC 071436
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2025
OCTAVE IS MAINTAINING SOME CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ITS CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES ARE MOSTLY LACKING. THERE IS SOME LIMITED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH
THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE STORM
AND AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.
THE CYCLONE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF AROUND
110/6 KT. OCTAVE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES, AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MAINLY EASTWARD
MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES PARTIALLY ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
TO ITS EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED
CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER OCTAVE,
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE STORM SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY DISRUPTED BY THE INFLUENCE OF PRISCILLA. SO,
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT IS
LIKELY TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OCTAVE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION IN 60-72 HOURS. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 17.9N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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