859
WTNT45 KNHC 072034
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
500 PM AST TUE OCT 07 2025
JERRY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
CENTER, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY STILL OCCURRING ON THE NORTH
AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. THE STORM REMAIN FAR FROM LAND,
ROUGHLY 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALL OF THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED, AND MOST OF THEM ARE
AROUND 45 KT. BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO THAT VALUE. BOTH THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JERRY TOMORROW.
JERRY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT ON THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS
INSIST THAT A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR SOON WITH A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE STORM NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS
MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CORE OF JERRY NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
BEST-PERFORMING MODELS SHOW THE CORE OF JERRY MISSING THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME GFS, ECMWF, AND GOOGLE DEEP
MIND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS.
THEREFORE, INTERESTS THERE AND IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESS AS DETAILS IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS DETERMINING HOW
CLOSE JERRY GETS TO THE ISLANDS. BY THE WEEKEND, A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DUE TO A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 72
HOURS, AS MODELS OFTEN HAVE A SLOW BIAS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH HCCA MODEL.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OF LIGHT WINDS ALOFT, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, AND OVER WARM WATERS. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE GFS- AND ECMWF-BASED SHIPS MODEL SHOW
THAT THERE IS ABOUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW JERRY BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO, WITH
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT. AFTER THE SYSTEM
PASSES BY THE ISLANDS, MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING TREND. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH HCCA AND IVCN.
BASED ON THE FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTIES, TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JERRY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTH AND COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, WHERE
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 12.0N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 12.8N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.5N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 25.8N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 30.2N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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