858
WTPZ31 KNHC 072034
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST TUE OCT 07 2025
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 110.8W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO SAN LAZARO,
MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT
OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM). SOCORRO ISLAND, LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES (115 KM) SOUTH OF
PRISCILLA'S EYE, RECENTLY RECORDED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH
(88 KM/H) WITH A GUST OF 76 MPH (122 KM/H).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL: FROM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTALS UP
TO 4 INCHES AS THE OUTER BANDS OF PRISCILLA REACH THE AREA. THIS
RAINFALL COULD BRING A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM PRISCILLA SHOULD BRING 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES, TO PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE
AREA’S TERRAIN. FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND, MOISTURE
FROM PRISCILLA LEADS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.
FORECASTER HAGEN
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