071
WTPZ41 KNHC 072038
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST TUE OCT 07 2025
PRISCILLA'S STRUCTURE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A LARGE EYE, ABOUT 50 N MI IN
DIAMETER. A RING OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60
DEGREES C COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE EYE AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 40 N MI.
EARLIER, A RING WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C BRIEFLY SURROUNDED
THE EYE. THE EYE ITSELF IS A BIT MESSY WITH LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON
GOES-18 1-MINUTE IMAGERY SWIRLING INSIDE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MOSTLY RANGING FROM 95-108 KT.
GIVEN THE LARGE AND BROAD NATURE OF THE EYE AND EYEWALL, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 95 KT, NEAR THE LOWER END OF THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PRISCILLA SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OR
POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATERS AND IN A MOIST, MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER THAT, THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS,
REACHING THE 26 DEGREE C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN 36
HOURS. PRISCILLA WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT AS IT
GAINS LATITUDE. THEREFORE, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE IN 3 DAYS, AND SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA SHOULD
LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AFTER 72 HOURS,
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENHANCED
MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE HURRICANE HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS
PRISCILLA MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO, BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF, THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF PRISCILLA. THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD
INDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
TRACK MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 H,
BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER
THAT TIME, AS PRISCILLA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
36 H, MAINLY DUE TO THE FARTHER WEST INITIAL POSITION. THEREAFTER,
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES
IN BETWEEN THE LATEST GFEX AND HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA)
SOLUTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ITS MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM TODAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 19.9N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.7N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.8N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 24.2N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 26.7N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 29.3N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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