401
ABPZ20 KNHC 072315
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE, LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND ON HURRICANE PRISCILLA, LOCATED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP90):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED LESS THAN ONE HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE
GUATEMALA–MEXICO BORDER REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. THE
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH,
NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...50 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
FORECASTER GIBBS
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