137
WTPZ45 KNHC 080238
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OCTAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS INTACT, THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 3.0/45 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 33 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE
PERSISTENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, OR 100 DEGREES, AT
AROUND 6 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE U.S. WEST
COAST AND BENEATH THE MUCH LARGER HURRICANE PRISCILLA TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST, ALONG WITH SOME ACCELERATION, IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS OCTAVE MOVES SOUTH OF PRISCILLA AND NEAR
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM (EP90) TO ITS SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC ADVISORY AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND GUIDANCE.
GIVEN OCTAVE’S COMPACT STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND DRIER
AIR. A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST THEREAFTER, AND OCTAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH PRISCILLA’S
LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND EP90 TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 15.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.2N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page