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ABPZ20 KNHC 080503
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC EAST OF 180 LONGITUDE:
ACTIVE SYSTEMS:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE, LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND ON HURRICANE PRISCILLA, LOCATED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP90):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED AROUND 100 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE GUATEMALA–MEXICO
BORDER REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...60 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...80 PERCENT.
FORECASTER GIBBS
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