244
WTPZ45 KNHC 080837
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OCTAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMALL
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION
REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. OVERALL, THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED AND POORLY
ORGANIZED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SINCE THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS
DID NOT SAMPLE THE CIRCULATION CENTER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KT, WHICH REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST, OR 080 DEGREES, AT AROUND 9
KT, AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
INTO THURSDAY AS OCTAVE MOVES SOUTH OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA AND NEAR
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM (EP90) TO ITS SOUTHEAST, LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS
AIDS AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT, THIS VALUE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS GIVEN THE RECENT DEGRADATION IN OCTAVE’S
SATELLITE PRESENTATION UNDER STRENGTHENING EASTERLY SHEAR. SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATES THAT INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. THUS, THE NEW NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS, AND
DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.5N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.6N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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