362
WTPZ41 KNHC 080840
TCDEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM MST WED OCT 08 2025
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A HURRICANE, PRISCILLA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE SYSTEM HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AND THE EYE
HAS BECOME POORLY-DEFINED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO -60 TO -70 DEG
C. USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI- AND T-NUMBERS, THE
INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, OR AROUND 305/7
KT. PRISCILLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. IN 48 HOURS OR
SO, A LARGE TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD
INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS, PRISCILLA WILL LIKELY
HAVE WEAKENED INTO A SHALLOW CYCLONE MOVING IN THE LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE
SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND IS
QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED WHILE MOVING OVER OCEAN WATERS THAT HAVE
LIKELY BEEN COOLED BY UPWELLING BENEATH THE LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRAVERSE EVEN COOLER WATERS TO
THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
RESULTING IN STEADY WEAKENING. PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE, SUGGESTING
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR PACIFIC COASTLINE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA TODAY.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
2. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
3. SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 21.0N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.2N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 26.8N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 27.9N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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