103
WTNT45 KNHC 080844
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
500 AM AST WED OCT 08 2025
JERRY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM IS STILL PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AND ELONGATED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. WITH NO SIGNS OF IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF JERRY IS HELD AT 45 KT, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY A 3.0/45 KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JERRY TODAY.
THE STORM IS RACING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (285/20 KT) TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS PART OF THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS. JERRY IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEN, JERRY
SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, NO NOTEWORTHY TRACK CHANGES WERE
MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
ONLY MODEST NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE SHEARED
STRUCTURE OF JERRY AND ITS FAST FORWARD MOTION. AS THE STORM BEGINS
TO SLOW DOWN, JERRY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED
AND ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITHIN GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
A SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 H, BUT JERRY IS STILL
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER, AND THE NHC PREDICTION TRENDS ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD,
CLOSER TO HCCA AND SOME OF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANY OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JERRY IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, WHERE
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 13.3N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 15.7N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.3N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 23.6N 63.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.3N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 32.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER REINHART
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