508
WTPZ45 KNHC 081441
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2025
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH OCTAVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, AS STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR,
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM PRISCILLA, CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE. IN FACT, THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS DIAGNOSING 30 TO 35 KT OF
SHEAR CURRENTLY. GOES-W IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS, AND RECENT
AMSR2 AND GPM MICROWAVE PASSES CONFIRM THIS STRUCTURE. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 30-45 KT, WHILE
UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 32-41 KT. SINCE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS RECENT, THE INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST, OR 080 DEGREES, AT 10 KT. A
TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED SOON, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
NORTHEASTWARD TURN TONIGHT AS OCTAVE MOVES SOUTH OF PRISCILLA AND
NEAR ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM (EP90) TO ITS SOUTHEAST, LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE STORM'S
PATH THROUGH THURSDAY. OCTAVE COULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR
ANOTHER 12 H DUE TO ITS MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE SHEAR
VECTOR AND THE CURRENT ONGOING CONVECTIVE BURST. HOWEVER, ALL
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT OCTAVE WILL NO LONGER HAVE A
CLOSED CIRCULATION BY HOUR 36. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION
COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT. GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT OCTAVE COULD LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 H. REGARDLESS, OCTAVE IS UNLIKELY TO STILL
BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 15.4N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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