518
WTNT45 KNHC 081452
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1100 AM AST WED OCT 08 2025
JERRY IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER RACING OUT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE
THIS STRUCTURE, A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK
700-MB WIND OF 56 KT, AND TAIL-DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWED WINDS OF
AROUND 75 KT AT 500 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE. EVEN USING A
CONSERVATIVE REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THIS DATA OF 70 PERCENT YIELDS
SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALSO CONFIRM THAT
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ABOUT 50 KT.
JERRY REMAINS ON A QUICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY (285/20 KT),
STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE ONLY
EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS THE LONGITUDE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, AND
THE WEAKNESS TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JERRY TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BY 36 HOURS, WITH THE CENTER POTENTIALLY PASSING ONLY
60-70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT TO THE EAST, SHOWING A SHARPER
RECURVATURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RESULTING FROM A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE U.S.
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
JERRY IS MOVING DIRECTLY AGAINST THE ANALYZED SHEAR VECTOR, AND
VERTICAL MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ORIENTATION MAY NOT CHANGE
ANY TIME SOON. IT'S BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT JERRY MAY REMAIN A
SHEARED TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST STILL
SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 60-72 HOURS,
HOWEVER THE PEAK HAS BEEN LOWERED BY ABOUT 10 KT. IT'S WORTH
NOTING THAT ONLY TWO OF THE RELIABLE MODELS, THE HWRF AND
COAMPS-TC, ARE STILL HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND THE
IVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DECREASES IN THE
FORECAST INTENSITY COULD BE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE ADVISORIES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JERRY COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 13.9N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 14.7N 55.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.1N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.9N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 20.0N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 22.5N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 25.1N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 29.6N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 32.7N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER BERG
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