581
WTNT35 KNHC 082032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
500 PM AST WED OCT 08 2025
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHEN JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 54.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ANGUILLA, ST. KITTS, NEVIS, AND MONTSERRAT
* ST. BARTHELEMY AND ST. MARTIN
* SINT MAARTEN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* GUADELOUPE AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JERRY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST. JERRY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
OR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
JERRY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM JERRY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER
WTNT45 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
RAINFALL: ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCAL STORM TOTAL MAXIMA TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS, BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO JERRY. THIS RAINFALL BRINGS A
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY, THEN SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE
GREATER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, CAN BE FOUND AT:
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT5.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST.
FORECASTER BERG
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