252
WTPZ45 KNHC 082034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS, WHICH HAS BEEN
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS RANGE FROM 30-45 KT. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS SHOWED PEAK VECTORS OF 38 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN SET TO 40 KT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS STILL CLOSED/WELL-DEFINED. HOWEVER, THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA'S CIRCULATION ARE
ONLY LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF OCTAVE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE OCTAVE COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, EVEN THOUGH DISSIPATION ISN'T EXPLICITLY FORECAST UNTIL
BEYOND 24 H.
OCTAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 KT. A GRADUAL
BEND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS
OCTAVE MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF PRISCILLA. THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA).
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OCTAVE'S LIFETIME. WHILE BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY
STILL FORM, ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY BE SHEARED OFF TO THE
WEST. GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE SHOW OCTAVE LOSING ITS
CONVECTION BY HOUR 24, BUT AS NOTED ABOVE, OCTAVE COULD LOSE ITS
CLOSED CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME. THE CLOSER OCTAVE
GETS TO PRISCILLA, THE SOONER OCTAVE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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