209
WTPZ45 KNHC 090243
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
800 PM MST WED OCT 08 2025
OCTAVE HAS REGAINED A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING BUT
REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED, WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATING
23 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 2.5/35 KT, WHILE A SATCON AND
AI-BASED ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WERE 39 AND 40 KT, RESPECTIVELY.
CONSIDERING A METOP-C ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY THAT SHOWED
SEVERAL 38-KT WIND BARBS, ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS HELD AT A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 40 KT.
OCTAVE HAS ACCELERATED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NOW MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 075 DEGREES AT 15 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT, TAKING THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF PRISCILLA. A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS OCTAVE MOVES TOWARD
A NEWLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE (INVEST 90E) OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY 36 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER, BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE
LARGER CIRCULATION OF 90E. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
OCTAVE’S DAYS ARE NUMBERED, WITH MORE THAN 30 KT OF EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE ITS LAST, AS SUGGESTED BY SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, CALLING
FOR OCTAVE TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 16.1N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.9N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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