529
WTPZ31 KNHC 090552
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
1100 PM MST WED OCT 08 2025
..PRISCILLA OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
...INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 113.9W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO SAN LAZARO,
MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT
OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB (29.21 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
RAINFALL: AS PRISCILLA MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES,
HEAVY RAIN FROM PRISCILLA’S MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO 2 TO 4
INCHES, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, AND SOUTHWEST
COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION
TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.
FORECASTER BUCCI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page