459
WTPZ45 KNHC 090835
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
200 AM MST THU OCT 09 2025
OCTAVE HAS MANAGED TO HOLD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, DESPITE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS TO BE AROUND 22 KT. HOWEVER, THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING
MORE RAGGED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.0/30 KT, WHILE RECENT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED BETWEEN 29 AND 34 KT.
CONSIDERING THE DETERIORATION IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND THE LATEST
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.
OCTAVE IS NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 065 DEGREES AT 16 KT.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY AN EASTWARD TURN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT TOWARD A NEWLY DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE (INVEST 90E) OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
THE NHC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE NEARING THE END OF ITS LIFE, AS STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CURRENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE
SOON, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING, WITH RECENT INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND THE REMAINING
CONVECTION BECOMING FURTHER DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OCTAVE
TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY
24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 16.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.4N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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