424
WTPZ31 KNHC 091148
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
500 AM MST THU OCT 09 2025
..PRISCILLA OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 114.5W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO SAN LAZARO,
MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PRISCILLA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. PRISCILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
THROUGH TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PRISCILLA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ41 KNHC.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
RAINFALL: AS PRISCILLA MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL MAXIMA TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS OCCURRENCES
OF FLASH FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED IN CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION
TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.
FORECASTER KELLY
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