866
WTNT45 KNHC 091441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1100 AM AST THU OCT 09 2025
THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING
JERRY THIS MORNING, AND THE RADAR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SHOW
THAT THE STORM REMAINS LOPSIDED WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE STRONG WINDS
AND CONVECTION ON THE SYSTEM'S EAST SIDE. THE CENTER ITSELF HAS
BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIX, BUT THE DATA GENERALLY SUPPORT A POSITION
THAT IS LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE AIRCRAFT
DATA AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN ITS POOR
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KT. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD OCCUR TODAY,
BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE STORM JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN BARBUDA AND POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE OTHER ISLANDS,
HOWEVER, GIVEN JERRY'S ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR TOMORROW, AND THAT MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM MOVES IN THE FLOW ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A FASTER EASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW JERRY PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA IN
3 OR 4 DAYS, AND GIVEN ITS EXPECTED EASTWARD ASYMMETRY, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY THERE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM, DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION ADJUSTMENT, BUT ENDS UP NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK FROM 48 TO
120 H. THIS PREDICTION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND
GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN JERRY'S ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LET UP SOME
WHILE JERRY REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS.
THEREFORE, SLOW STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET BEYOND A FEW DAYS WHEN
JERRY IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND INTO
STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA MODEL.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BARBUDA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
FRIDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN STEEP TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 15.9N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.0N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 21.7N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.2N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 26.5N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 28.5N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 31.3N 59.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 31.4N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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