876
WTNT45 KNHC 092036
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
500 PM AST THU OCT 09 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES, AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS, AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE
THAT JERRY IS A POORLY ORGANIZED AND STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL
STORM. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED,
WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE SYSTEM'S SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST SIDES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD AT 55 KT,
BUT THAT COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE CENTER OF JERRY IS LESS
THAN 100 MILES FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, WHICH IS OFTEN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT AND
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A
REGION EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT, WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT ON THE
WEST SIDE.
JERRY HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY TODAY, BUT SMOOTHING THROUGH THE
FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 300/16 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, TAKING THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THAT
TIME. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PASS
TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO JERRY'S ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY LATE TOMORROW, AND THAT
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM
MOVES IN THE FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A FASTER EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA IN A FEW DAYS, AND GIVEN ITS EXPECTED EASTWARD
ASYMMETRY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY THERE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST, AND
THIS PREDICTION IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN JERRY'S POOR
INITIAL STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, AFTER THE STORM PASSES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOME WHILE
JERRY REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A MOIST AIR MASS. THEREFORE,
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY END EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO STRONGER SHEAR AND OVER COOLER WATERS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF THE STORM'S POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE AND LATEST GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA AND
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
FRIDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN STEEP TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 17.3N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.6N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 21.0N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 63.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 26.5N 63.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 30.7N 61.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 32.3N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 32.2N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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