061
WTPZ42 KNHC 092041
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
300 PM CST THU OCT 09 2025
SATELLITE IMAGES AND A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASS
WERE USED TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND AT THE
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. SINCE THAT TIME, DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
BURST MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C. LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 43 KT. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE WAS A
SCATTEROMETER GAP OVER THE MUCH OF THE SYSTEM, AND NO RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO GAIN A BETTER IDEA OF THE INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. USING THE THE PREVIOUS SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/13 KT,
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE RECENT FORMATION OF
THE CENTER. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
STEER THE SYSTEM SWIFTLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE CENTER PARALLELING THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE
NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE
CONSENSUS AIDS.
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DISPLACE MOST OF THE CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
29-30C AND WITHIN A PREFERABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THUS,
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. IN ABOUT A DAY OR
SO, DRIER AIR AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
START WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODEL
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY DAY 3, WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL, AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING BY DAY 4.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 16.5N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.3N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 106.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.6N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 24.8N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 26.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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