618
WTPZ31 KNHC 092043
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST THU OCT 09 2025
...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.4N 114.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. PRISCILLA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL TO, BUT OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: AS PRISCILLA MOVES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH LOCAL STORM TOTAL MAXIMA TO 6 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWEST
COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RAINQPF
SURF: LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY PRISCILLA ARE AFFECTING THE PACIFIC
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION
TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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