527
WTPZ41 KNHC 092044
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 PM MST THU OCT 09 2025
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA HAS MADE A SLIGHT
COMEBACK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C IN A FEW
CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. DATA
FROM A SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED HIGHEST
WINDS NEAR 40 KT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA AND THE SLIGHT RESURGENCE IN CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE
TO THE MEAN OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
THE STORM CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 330/7 KT. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN
AND BECOMES A SHALLOW VORTEX, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DISSIPATE JUST
OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING OVER SSTS OF AROUND 24 DEG C AND WILL LIKELY
TRAVERSE A LITTLE COOLER WATERS TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH A RATHER DRY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS, SHOULD LEAD TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO A
REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE.
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN
UTAH, SOUTHWEST COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. PLEASE
FOLLOW FORECAST UPDATES FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT WEATHER.GOV AND THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT WPC.NCEP.GOV
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 25.2N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 26.2N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/0600Z 26.9N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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