004
WTPZ41 KNHC 100236
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2025
PRISCILLA HAS PROVEN TO BE A RESILIENT TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
EVENING, DESPITE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS NEAR 24C. SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND THAT WRAPS MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5/35
KT AND 3.5/55 KT, RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA,
ALONG WITH THE LARGE AREA OF 40-KT WINDS NOTED IN A SCATTEROMETER
PASS EARLIER TODAY AND SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CYCLONE’S STRUCTURE,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST, OR 345 DEGREES, AT 7 KT. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS
AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AFTER
24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHALLOWER AND INCREASINGLY STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHILE ALSO
ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES THAT PRISCILLA WILL LOSE
ITS DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS, WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING
THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR PRISCILLA TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED
BY 48 HOURS.
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL ARIZONA, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH, SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. PLEASE MONITOR FORECASTS
AND UPDATES FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AT WEATHER.GOV AND FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
AT WPC.NCEP.GOV.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 25.1N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 25.8N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.4N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1200Z 26.8N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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