361
WTPZ42 KNHC 100242
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
900 PM CST THU OCT 09 2025
A COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT RAYMOND'S
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
IMAGES SHOW FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS SURROUNDING THE ELONGATED (SE
TO NW) SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE MAY BE STRUGGLING A BIT
DUE TO THE LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (-82C CLOUD TOPS) LOCATED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, WHICH COULD BE DISRUPTING THE
CYCLONE'S LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT, AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS
SATCON ANALYSIS ESTIMATED THE INTENSITY TO BE 35 KT. USING A BLEND
OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RAYMOND WILL BE BATTLING STIFF EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD HAMPER
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. SUBSEQUENTLY, ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTERWARD, AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY, RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY WHILE EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
AND ULTIMATELY OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE FSSE, HCCA,
AND IVCN INTENSITY AIDS.
RAYMOND'S CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIND THIS EVENING, AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AN ESTIMATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING, OR 290/13
KT. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH, ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, SHOULD
STEER RAYMOND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST, WHILE
PARALLELING AND REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AFTERWARD, RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO
TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. INTERESTS IN
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 16.7N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 17.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 19.5N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.2N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 25.4N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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