657
WTNT45 KNHC 100256
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1100 PM AST THU OCT 09 2025
JERRY REMAINS A DISHEVELED TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WHICH CONTINUES TO RUN OUT AHEAD DUE TO CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH THE PEAK
850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND
VERY LITTLE WIND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT THIS
ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING AS WELL, WITH THE
LATEST DROPSONDE DATA SUPPORTING A MINIMUM VALUE OF 1005 MB.
JERRY APPEARS TO FINALLY BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NOW, ESTIMATED AT
315/15 KT. THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS THIS
AFTERNOON, AS JERRY'S TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND MORE POLEWARD AS
IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, JERRY IS MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS CURRENTLY, AND ITS ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD MEANS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL STAY EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A FASTER EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO PASS
EAST OF BERMUDA IN A FEW DAYS, AND GIVEN ITS EXPECTED EASTWARD
ASYMMETRY, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS STILL REMAIN UNLIKELY THERE. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ONE, AND IS A ROUGH
BLEND BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST HCCA GUIDANCE AND THE
FASTER AND FURTHER EAST GOOGLE DEEPMIND MEAN (GDMI).
THE TROPICAL STORM IS STRUGGLING MIGHTILY AGAINST THE UNFAVORABLE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR, AND ITS CURRENT POOR STRUCTURE
ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR FUTURE SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
THE STORM PASSES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DOES DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE,
IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO RECOVER. NONETHELESS,
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN BEGINNING IN 36 HOURS, THOUGH THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SHEAR
INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST AND SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE AS JERRY RECURVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, AND SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN AGAIN IN 120 H. THIS REMAINS
A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST, AND ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD EXPECTED FROM JERRY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN AFTER JERRY PASSES TO THE NORTH DUE TO
ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA AND
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS,
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH
FRIDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
AREAS AND IN STEEP TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 18.2N 61.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.5N 63.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.1N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 29.5N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.3N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 31.8N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 32.5N 51.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
FORECASTER PAPIN
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