871
WTPZ41 KNHC 100838
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025
PRISCILLA REMAINS A RESILIENT TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY THIS MORNING
DESPITE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS NEAR 24C. SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT, LIKELY
DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY
UW-CIMSS, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW POSITIONED ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5/35 KT AND 3.5/55 KT,
RESPECTIVELY, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGED FROM 35
TO 54 KT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF
40-KT WINDS, WITH A PEAK WIND VECTOR OF 41 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
PRISCILLA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD, OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE
PREVIOUS TRACK PREDICTION.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER COOL WATERS AND A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING OF PRISCILLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWS
PRISCILLA LOSING DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS, WITH BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY 36
HOURS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR PRISCILLA TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED
BY 36 HOURS.
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH,
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. PLEASE
MONITOR FORECASTS AND UPDATES FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT WEATHER.GOV AND FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER AT WPC.NCEP.GOV.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 25.5N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 26.0N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 26.5N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)
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