022
WTNT41 KNHC 100850
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
900 AM GMT FRI OCT 10 2025
KAREN REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE COMPACT
STORM IS STILL PRODUCING SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND ITS CENTER,
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE
ST2.5/35-40 KT CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD (045/8 KT), AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H WITHIN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. DESPITE
BEING LOCATED OVER SUB-20 DEG C SSTS, VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR KAREN TO MAINTAIN SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE GOING FORWARD, AND THE
GFS AND ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE SYSTEM DEVOID OF
CONVECTION BY EARLY SATURDAY. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, KAREN IS FORECAST
TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 45.3N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 46.8N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 49.4N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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