966
WTPZ42 KNHC 100852
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
300 AM CST FRI OCT 10 2025
RAYMOND IS SKIRTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. GEOSTATIONARY
PROXY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
CIRCULATION WITH A BURST OF GROWING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
DESPITE RAYMOND'S DISHEVELED CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE, THE STORM SEEMS
TO BE MAINTAINING A DECENT SURFACE CIRCULATION. OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THE CENTER OF RAYMOND JUST OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH WIND VECTORS UP TO 48 TO 50 KT IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.
STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN
COASTLINE SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT RAYMOND'S POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN.
MOST GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS PLATEAU THE INTENSITY, AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD A DRIER AIRMASS.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BASED ON THE
LATEST INTENSITY INCREASE BUT STILL SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAYMOND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD STEER RAYMOND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY THE WEEKEND, A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, TURNING THE TROPICAL STORM NORTHWARD AND BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, LARGELY DUE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE INITIAL POSITION, AND NOW LIES NEAR THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND FORECAST
AID.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 17.4N 103.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.7N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 22.2N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 26.5N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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