561
WTPZ41 KNHC 101442
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF PRISCILLA
HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED THIS MORNING. THE DEGRADATION IS DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND DRIER AIR, AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT. USING THESE ESTIMATES,
IN COMBINATION WITH THE SCATTEROMETER DATA OVERNIGHT, AND RECENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
PRISCILLA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
360/5 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS.
ALTHOUGH PRISCILLA HAS BEEN RESILIENT, IT SEEMS TO BE SUCCUMBING TO
THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF 20 TO 30 KT, WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE FURTHER
WEAKENING. CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTED TO DISSIPATE AND GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION BY
TONIGHT AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY SATURDAY. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE TRENDS WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 12H, AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 24H.
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA REMAINS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH, WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ARIZONA, SOUTHERN UTAH,
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. PLEASE
MONITOR FORECASTS AND UPDATES FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT WEATHER.GOV AND FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER AT WPC.NCEP.GOV.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 25.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.5N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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