478
WTPZ42 KNHC 101443
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
900 AM CST FRI OCT 10 2025
RAYMOND CONTINUES TO BE A CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL STORM,
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A GMI MICROWAVE PASS
AT 1035 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS LIMITED CURVED BANDING STRUCTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C
OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE
OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 30 TO
45 KT. GIVEN THE SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE WIND DERIVED DATA FROM LAST
NIGHT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD JUST ABOVE THOSE ESTIMATES
AT 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/13 KT.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH
THE CENTER PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LIMITING STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C. THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN ABOUT
24 H, THUS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
GLOBAL SIMULATED IR SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION WANING IN ABOUT 2
DAYS, AND THEN MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 18.3N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.6N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 21.4N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 23.2N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.6N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page