745
WTNT41 KNHC 102032
TCDAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112025
900 PM GMT FRI OCT 10 2025
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING,
LEAVING THE SYSTEM A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. THEREFORE, KAREN HAS LOST ITS DESIGNATION AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE, AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT, BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THE LOW IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 025 DEGREES AT 14 KT. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPDATED NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON KAREN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO
FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW AND AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTPS://TGFTP.NWS.NOAA.GOV/DATA/RAW/FQ/FQNT50.LFPW..TXT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 47.5N 30.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0600Z 49.4N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 11/1800Z 53.5N 27.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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