744
WTPZ42 KNHC 102032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172025
200 PM MST FRI OCT 10 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RAYMOND IS PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS WINDS THAT WERE NOT RAIN-FLAGGED AROUND 40
KT, WHICH GIVEN THE UNDERSAMPLING OF THAT INSTRUMENT AND THE SMALL
SIZE OF RAYMOND SUPPORTS WINDS OF 45 KT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
LARGE RANGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY AS WELL
WITH ESTIMATES FROM 30 TO 45 KT. USING A COMBINATION OF THE DATA,
THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, THERE COULD BE AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCEMENTS.
THUS, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED ON THE INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/14 KT. A
RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH THE CENTER
PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TOMORROW
INTO SUNDAY. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS.
RAYMOND CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GIVEN THE SHEAR, THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OR DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER RAYMOND, WITH THE SYSTEM ENTERING A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 18-24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS NEAR THE LATEST CONSENSUS
AIDS. GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATED IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS CONVECTION
WANING IN ABOUT 36H, WITH MODELS SHOWING THE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 60H POINT IS SHOWED FOR CONTINUITY, BUT
THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ALONG PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND WILL IMPACT COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE FROM RAYMOND WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 19.1N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.5N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 22.5N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 24.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 27.1N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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